Heterogeneity in regional notification patterns and its impact on aggregate national case notification data: the example of measles in Italy

BACKGROUND: A monthly time series of measles case notifications exists for Italy from 1949 onwards, although its usefulness is seriously undermined by extensive under-reporting which varies strikingly between regions, giving rise to the possibility of significant distortions in epidemic patterns seen in aggregated national data. RESULTS: A corrected national time series is calculated using an algorithm based upon the approximate equality between births and measles cases; under-reporting estimates are presented for each Italian region, and poor levels of reporting in Southern Italy are confirmed. CONCLUSION: Although an order of magnitude larger, despite great heterogeneity between regions in under-reporting and in epidemic patterns, the shape of the corrected national time series remains close to that of the aggregated uncorrected data. This suggests such aggregate data may be quite robust to great heterogeneity in reporting and epidemic patterns at the regional level. The corrected data set maintains an epidemic pattern distinct from that of England and Wales

Clinical, social and relational determinants of paediatric ambulatory drug prescriptions due to respiratory tract infections in Italy.

OBJECTIVES: Collecting information on patterns of drug prescriptions and on factors influencing prescribing decisions is fundamental for supporting the rational use of drugs. This study was aimed at investigating patterns of drug prescription in paediatric outpatients and at evaluating determinants of prescriptions for respiratory tract infections (RTIs). METHODS: We conducted a national cross-sectional survey involving primary care paediatricians and parents. Diagnoses and prescriptions made at each consultation were described. Poisson regression models were used to analyse determinants of drug and antibiotic prescriptions for visits due to RTIs. RESULTS: A total of 4,302 physician and parent questionnaires were analysed. These corresponded to 2,151 visits, 792 of which were due to RTIs. Drugs were prescribed in 83.4% of RTI visits, while antibiotics were prescribed in 40.4%. According to paediatricians' perceptions, 84.2% of parents of children with a RTI expected to receive a drug prescription. Paediatricians' perception of parental expectations was the strongest determinant for prescription of drugs and specifically of antibiotics [adjusted relative risk (RR): 1.7 and 3.6, respectively; P < 0.001]. However, in 77.1% of RTI visits, paediatricians judged themselves as not being influenced at all by parents' expectations in their decision to prescribe. CONCLUSIONS: This study underscores that relational factors, in particular perceived parental expectations, are one of the leading factors of drug prescriptions in paediatric ambulatory care settings, reinforcing the opinion that communication between physicians and parents can affect prescription patterns

Health burden and economic impact of measles-related hospitalizations in Italy in 2002–2003

Background: A large measles outbreak occurred in Italy in 2002 - 2003. This study evaluates the health burden and economic impact of measles- related hospitalizations in Italy during the specified period. Methods: Hospital discharge abstract data for measles hospitalizations in Italy during 2002 - 2003 were analysed to obtain information regarding number and rates of measles hospitalizations by geographical area and age group, length of hospital stay, and complications. Hospitalization costs were estimated on the basis of Diagnosis- Related Groups. Results: A total of 5,154 hospitalizations were identified, 3,478 ( 67%) of which occurred in children < 15 years of age. Most hospitalizations occurred in southern Italy ( 71 %) and children below 1 year of age presented the greatest hospitalization rates ( 46.2/ 100,000 and 19.0/ 100,000, respectively in 2002 and 2003). Pneumonia was diagnosed in 594 cases ( 11.5%) and encephalitis in 138 cases ( 2.7%). Total hospital charges were approximately (sic) 8.8 million. Conclusion: The nationwide health burden associated with measles during the 2002 - 2003 outbreak was substantial and a high cost was incurred by the Italian National Health Service for the thousands of measles- related hospitalizations which occurred. By assuming that hospital costs represent 40 - 50% of the direct costs of measles cases, direct costs of measles for the two years combined were estimated to be between (sic)17.6 - 22.0 million, which equates to the vaccination of 1.5 - 1.9 million children ( 3 - 4 birth cohorts) with one dose of MMR. The high cost of measles and the severity of its complications fully justify the commitment required to reach measles elimination

Invasive Type e Haemophilus influenzae Disease in Italy

We describe the first reported cases of invasive type e Haemophilus influenzae disease in Italy. All five cases occurred in adults. The isolates were susceptible to ampicillin and eight other antimicrobial agents. Molecular analysis showed two distinct type e strains circulating in Italy, both containing a single copy of the capsulation locus

Performance of the pediatric index of mortality 2 (PIM-2) in cardiac and mixed intensive care units in a tertiary children's referral hospital in Italy

Background: Mortality rate of patients admitted to Intensive Care Units is a widely adopted outcome indicator. Because of large case-mix variability, comparisons of mortality rates must be adjusted for the severity of patient illness at admission. The Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 (PIM-2) has been widely adopted as a tool for adjusting mortality rate by patients' case mix. The objective of this study was to assess the performance of PIM-2 in children admitted to intensive care units after cardiac surgery, other surgery, or for other reasons. Methods: This was a prospective cohort study, conducted in a 607 inpatient-bed tertiary-care pediatric hospital in Italy, with three pediatric intensive care Units (PICUs) and one cardiac Unit (CICU). In 2009-11, all consecutive admissions to PICUs/CICU of children aged 0-16 years were included in the study. Discrimination and calibration measures were computed to assess PIM-2 performance. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association of patients' main reason for intensive care admission (cardiac-surgical, other-surgical, medical), age, Unit and year with observed mortality, adjusting for PIM-2 score. Results: PIM-2 data collection was completed for 91.2% of total PICUs/CICU patient admissions (2912), and for 94.8% of patients who died in PICUs/CICU (129). Overall observed mortality was 4.4% (95% CI, 3.7-5.2), compared to 6.4% (95% CI, 5.5-7.3) expected mortality. Standardised mortality ratio was 0.7 (95% CI: 0.6-0.8). PIM-2 discrimination was fair (area under the curve, 0.79; 95% CI: 0.75-0.83). Calibration was less satisfactory, mainly because of the over two-fold overprediction of deaths in the highest risk group (114.7 vs 53; p < 0.001), and particularly in cardiac-surgical patients. Multivariable logistic analysis showed that risk of death was significantly reduced in cardiac-surgical patients and in those aged 1 month to 12 years, independently from PIM-2. Conclusions: The children age distribution and the proportion of cardiac-surgical patients should be taken into account when interpreting SMRs estimated using the PIM-2 prediction model in different Units. A new calibration study of PIM-2 score might be needed, and more appropriate cardiac-focused risk-adjustment models should be developed. The role of age on risk of death needs to be further explored

The pre-vaccination regional epidemiological landscape of measles in Italy: contact patterns, effort needed for eradication, and comparison with other regions of Europe

BACKGROUND: Strong regional heterogeneity and generally sub-optimal rates of measles vaccination in Italy have, to date, hampered attainment of WHO targets for measles elimination, and have generated the need for the new Italian National Measles Elimination Plan. Crucial to success of the plan is the identification of intervention priorities based upon a clear picture of the regional epidemiology of measles derived from the use of data to estimate basic parameters. Previous estimates of measles force of infection for Italy have appeared anomalously low. It has been argued elsewhere that this results from Italian selective under-reporting by age of cases and that the true measles force of infection in Italy is probably similar to that of other European countries. A deeper examination of the evidence for this conjecture is undertaken in the present paper. METHODS: Using monthly regional case notifications data from 1949 to the start of vaccination in 1976 and notifications by age from 1971–76, summary equilibrium parameters (force of infection (FOI), basic reproductive ratio (R(0)) and critical vaccination coverage (p(c))) are calculated for each region and for each of 5 plausible contact patterns. An analysis of the spectra of incidence profiles is also carried out. Finally a transmission dynamics model is employed to explore the correspondence between projections using different estimates of force of infection and data on seroprevalence in Italy. RESULTS: FOI estimates are lower than comparable European FOIs and there is substantial regional heterogeneity in basic reproductive ratios; certain patterns of contact matrices are demonstrated to be unfeasible. Most regions show evidence of 3-year epidemic cycles or longer, and compared with England & Wales there appears to be little synchronisation between regions. Modelling results suggest that the lower FOI estimated from corrected aggregate national data matches serological data more closely than that estimated from typical European data. CONCLUSION: Results suggest forces of infection in Italy, though everywhere remaining below the typical European level, are historically higher in the South where currently vaccination coverage is lowest. There appears to be little evidence to support the suggestion that a higher true force of infection is masked by age bias in reporting

The FLURESP European commission project. cost-effectiveness assessment of ten public health measures against influenza in Italy. is there an interest in COVID-19 pandemic?

Background: The FLURESP project is a public health research funded by the European Commission, with the objective to design a methodological framework to assess the cost-effectiveness of existing public health measures against human influenza pandemics. A dataset has been specifically collected in the frame of the Italian health system. As most of interventions against human influenza are relavant against other respiratory diseases pandemics, potential interests in COVID-19 are discussed. Methods: Ten public health measures against human influenza pandemics pandemic were selected to be also relevant to other respiratory virus pandemics such as COVID 19: individual (hand washing, using masks), border control (quarantine, fever screening, border closure), community infection (school closure, class dismissal, social distancing, limitation of public transport), reduction of secondary infections (implementation of antibiotic therapy guidelines), pneumococcal vaccination for at-risk people, development of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) capacity, implementation of life support equipments in ICU, screening interventions, vaccination programs targeting health professional and targeting general population. Results: Using mortality reduction as effectiveness criteria, the most cost-effective strategies are "reduction of secondary infections" and "implementation of life support equipment in ICU". The least cost-effective option whatever the level of pandemic events are screening interventions and mass vaccination. Conclusions: A number of intervention strategies against human influenza pandemics appears relevant against every respiratory virus, including the COVID-19 event. Measures against pandemics should be considered according to their expected effectiveness but also their costs for the society because they impose substantial burden to the population, confirming the interest of considering cost-effectiveness of public health measures to enlighten decision making

Trends for Influenza-related Deaths during Pandemic and Epidemic Seasons, Italy, 1969–2001

During epidemics, excess deaths were similar in amplitude and time across 3 regions